Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.1 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending June 20.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed consistent, with 0.88% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending June 13 and 0.87% positive during the week ending June 20.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater stayed consistent between June 13 and June 20, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 12% between June 10 and June 17, and the national wastewater trend is “low,” per WastewaterSCAN.
As of mid-June, a summer COVID-19 wave appears to be slowly starting in parts of the Southern U.S. Disease levels are still low across most of the country, though — as best as we can tell from wastewater and PCR testing data — and it may be a few weeks before we see recent increases grow into a broader surge.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN report very low national averages of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage, as they have for the last couple of months. Both organizations also report low levels across most regions.
The South is an exception to this trend: WWSCAN reports recent increases and higher SARS-CoV-2 levels in some Southern testing sites, particularly in Mississippi, Florida, and Texas. And the CDC reports “low” levels in Florida, Texas, and Alaska; “moderate” in Mississippi; and “very high” in Guam compared to “very low” everywhere else. Biobot Analytics has not shared an update yet for this week, but last week also reported a potential increase in the South.
Healthcare system data suggest outbreaks in the South, too. The CDC’s test positivity network reports potential increases in health regions 3 and 7 (the Mid-Atlantic and Great Plans, respectively) as well as a smaller one in region 1 (New England) in its latest data. It also reports a potential decline in health region 6 (Texas and other neighboring states), but this follows four weeks of increases there.
In addition, the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that cases are “growing” in Louisiana and “likely growing” in Mississippi and Florida as of June 23. While Texas’ epidemic trend is estimated as “not changing” on the state map, the center’s estimates for health service areas show outbreaks in South and Central Texas.
Meanwhile, the center estimates that cases are “declining or likely declining” in 34 states as of June 23. It’s worth emphasizing that, while the outbreaks in the South merit concern, disease levels are still low across most of the U.S. compared to the last several years of available data.
In other public health news: a recent Ebola outbreak in Africa is growing at a concerning rate. Health officials have confirmed over 1,000 cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the highest number recorded in the first month of an outbreak on this continent. The outbreak is posing many challenges for responders, including a lack of vaccines and treatments for the strain causing cases, violent conflict in the region, and health misinformation.
