Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 39% between August 5 and August 12, and the national wastewater trend is “high” (high concentration and upward trend), per WastewaterSCAN.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 23% between August 8 and August 15, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- COVID-19 test positivity increased significantly, from 3.8% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending August 8 to 4.8% positive during the week ending August 15.
The end of summer may be approaching in the U.S., but our summer COVID-19 wave is showing no signs of slowing. All data sources report significant increases in disease levels and outbreaks across the country. As the latest data are from mid-August, case counts may be higher in your area than they appear.
The CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all keep reporting increases in SARS-CoV-2 levels at sewage testing sites around the U.S. The West and South continue to feature the biggest hotspots in this wave, but there are testing sites with high levels and notable increases across all regions.
While WWSCAN’s dashboard and Biobot’s newsletter both describe recent national SARS-CoV-2 levels as higher, the CDC’s wastewater surveillance system still insists they are “very low.” This is partially because the CDC compares recent levels to an already-high baseline, and partially because the agency keeps shifting its data presentation to downplay COVID-19’s spread; see last week’s update for more details.
Still, even the CDC’s wastewater dashboard reports that SARS-CoV-2 viral activity in wastewater is “high” in Texas and Mississippi and “moderate” in California, Hawaii, Guam, and the Virgin Islands — indicating that disease levels are actually quite high in these regions. (Testing sites in Mississippi are limited, but other data sources also suggest high COVID-19 spread in that state.)
Test positivity, as reported by the CDC’s PCR testing network, also continues to increase nationally and across regions. The testing network’s national average is nearing 5%, where test positivity peaked during last winter’s wave; and this metric has already surpassed the winter’s highest levels for parts of the South (health regions 4 and 6) and West (regions 9 and 10).
Similarly, the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 47 states as of August 19. Cases are “not changing” in two states, don’t have data available in two states, and declining in zero states, per the center.
School has started for much of the U.S., which will likely magnify outbreaks as very few schools still take any COVID-19 precautions. A recent paper in the journal Vaccine shows the immense costs of infectious diseases harming children: the authors estimated that measles outbreaks in 2025 cost the medical and public health systems over $100 million total that year, and likely will cost even more this year as measles continues spreading. Long COVID in children is not tracked as closely, but is surely still causing immense harm.
