Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 26% between July 29 and August 5, and the national wastewater trend is “high” (medium concentration and upward trend), per WastewaterSCAN.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 4% between August 1 and August 8, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- COVID-19 test positivity increased significantly, from 3.1% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending August 1 to 3.7% positive during the week ending August 8.
COVID-19 spread continues to increase across the U.S. as this summer’s wave keeps climbing. While levels are highest in the West and South, there are hotspots in all regions. The CDC as well as mainstream media sources are downplaying this wave as they have many others.
The CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report increasing SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater through late July and early August. All three data providers also report the highest regional averages in the West, followed by the South. Biobot’s latest report notes there are “some week-to-week fluctuations” in the company’s data, but asserts that “overall, the summer COVID wave is still growing.”
The CDC’s national wastewater viral activity level (WVAL) is still “very low” despite clear increases in infections. In addition to using only recent data for its activity level calculation — meaning the baseline is much higher than truly low levels we saw early in the pandemic — the agency recently shifted its categories to further downplay COVID-19’s spread. WVAL values that would’ve been labeled as “low” before this shift are now “very low,” values that would’ve been “moderate” are now “low,” and so on.
For example, California — which has been a hotspot so far in this summer wave — currently has a “low” WVAL on the CDC’s dashboard. But based on the raw data, it would have been labeled as “moderate” with the same statewide average before this shift. The state health department’s dashboard, which also uses CDC levels to display the data, now labels prior waves as peaking with “low” and “moderate” levels, too. Data tracker Michael Hoerger flagged the CDC category change and shared a video explaining it in detail.
Meanwhile, the CDC’s healthcare system data are less ambiguous in reporting this wave. The agency’s infectious disease forecasting center (which uses emergency department data) estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” across all states but one as of August 12. The one exception is Iowa, where trends are “not estimated” due to limited data.
Test positivity is also increasing across nearly all regions and is approaching high levels in the West and South, according to the CDC’s PCR testing network. The CDC reports increases in New York and New Jersey (health region 2), the Mid-Atlantic (region 3), the Southeast (region 4), Mid-South states (region 6), the Mountain West (region 8), the Southwest (region 9), and the Northwest (region 10).
Over a month after COVID-19 levels started increasing, mainstream media outlets have finally picked up on the presence of this summer’s wave. One recent story in NPR downplays the virus’ continued spread, suggesting that it only makes people “feel awful for a week or two” and completely failing to mention Long COVID as a potential result of infection.
