Moderate to high levels of COVID-19 spread persist through much of the U.S., as of mid-October. Different data sources offer conflicting information about where cases may be increasing and decreasing. Meanwhile, flu spread is on the rise, especially in the West and South.
COVID-19 spread remains higher in the West than other regions. Wastewater data indicate cases are declining in the region, but I suspect this trend may be largely driven by California, which has a more robust sewage testing network than other nearby states. Especially right now, as some CDC network sites are still impacted by a gap between testing contracts. For example, only five of 33 sites in Oregon reported data for the week ending October 10, and four of those five had “very high” levels.
In the South, the CDC’s wastewater dashboard reports increasing SARS-CoV-2 levels over the last two weeks after prior declines from the region’s summer highs. WastewaterSCAN also reports potential increases at some testing sites in Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida, and Georgia. Test positivity data and emergency department visits report declines and plateaus for these states, but these metrics are sometimes delayed compared to wastewater.
Some Northeast wastewater testing sites are reporting higher SARS-CoV-2 levels and/or recent increases, including some sites in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. Like in the South, these increases are not showing up in healthcare system data, but that could change in the coming weeks. The Midwest continues to report lower and relatively stable COVID-19 levels across data sources.
After labeling national wastewater viral activity levels for COVID-19 as “very low” throughout the summer and early fall, the CDC’s latest data retroactively updates these levels to “low” in late August and most of September, and “moderate” for the week ending September 19. These retrospective shifts show how the agency’s data presentation practices, combined with delays in reporting, often lead to downplaying COVID-19 increases as they are starting.
In other virus news, flu cases continue to pick up across the U.S., especially in the West and South. Test positivity for flu has crossed over 10% for some Southwest states and island territories in health region 9. The CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that flu cases are “growing or likely growing” in 46 states as of October 14, while COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 11 states.
The CDC has also downplayed measles as that disease continues to spread. While Pennsylvania’s health department has now reported six measles deaths this year, the CDC only acknowledges three — with differing reporting criteria reminiscent of the “with COVID-19” versus “for COVID-19” debates earlier in the pandemic. Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro has accused health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. of spreading misinformation about measles vaccines, causing “real-life consequences.”
