National COVID-19 trends, October 15

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October 15, 2024

Line chart showing SARS-CoV-2 levels over time for the U.S. nationally (black line) and four major regions (Northeast in bright green, South in yellow-green, Midwest in red, West in blue). Following increases over the summer, viral levels are decreasing in all four regions. — Regional data from WastewaterSCAN show how SARS-CoV-2 has declined across the U.S. in recent weeks.

Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:

About 2.9 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending September 28. (Note that these are provisional data.)
COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 19%, from 9.5% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending September 28 to 7.7% of tests during the week ending October 5.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 29% between the week ending September 28 and the week ending October 5, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 13% between September 25 and October 2, per WastewaterSCAN.

Following the same trends as the last few weeks, COVID-19 declines continue across all regions of the U.S. We are still in a lull of moderate spread between surges, making it a good time to stock up on safety supplies and prepare for the winter. Even with lower current infections, though, deaths and disability from the summer continue to climb: the CDC reported an average of 1,000 COVID-19 deaths a week in August and September.

All three major wastewater data providers — the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics — agree that SARS-CoV-2 levels in our sewers are declining across regions and, at the national scale, are similar to or lower than disease levels at this time last year. The CDC changed its assessment of national wastewater viral activity levels to “low” (from “moderate” last week), but always remember that the CDC’s low is still a high baseline compared to earlier years of the pandemic.

Hospitalizations and test positivity data also suggest continued declines in COVID-19 cases nationally and across all regions. The average test positivity rate, from PCR testing labs still reporting to the CDC, has declined below 10% as of late September, which I consider an indicator of more moderate disease spread. Testing data from Walgreens also show consistent declines over the last month.

The CDC’s state-level data indicate wastewater levels are still on the higher side in some West Coast, Northeast, and South states, including Oregon, Washington, Montana, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. Modeling estimates from the CDC’s forecasting center suggest infections continue to decline across the country, though the forecasting team notes that estimates for Southeast states may be “unstable” due to evacuations and travel with the recent hurricanes.

While COVID-19 rates are currently declining, the new variant XEC is growing in the U.S. The CDC’s latest variant estimates suggest this lineage led to about 11% of cases between September 29 and October 12, up from 5% in the prior two weeks. This recombinant variant is already spreading widely across Europe, and experts anticipate that it will contribute to disease spread this winter — spurred on by travel and gatherings without safety measures, of course.

In preparation for the winter, some Bay Area counties have reinstated mask requirements for healthcare settings, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. The rules mostly apply only to healthcare workers, not patients, but are still a helpful step for reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and other airborne viruses in these important settings. Facilities and local governments in other parts of the U.S. should follow these counties’ lead.