Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.6 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending November 30. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has increased 20%, from 4.5% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending November 30 to 5.4% of tests during the week ending December 7.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 55% between the week ending November 30 and the week ending December 7, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 28% between November 27 and December 4, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 5% between the week ending November 30 and the week ending December 7, and this metric has passed the threshold for flu season.
COVID-19 cases are definitively increasing across the U.S. This year’s winter wave started late and lower than expected, but is clearly picking up now — the risk of infection will likely be high everywhere by the time people travel and gather for holidays at the end of December. For now, the Midwest and Northeast continue to report higher disease levels than the other regions.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN show significant increases in SARS-CoV-2 levels during the first week of December. The CDC’s national average jumped over 50% from November 30 to December 7, while WastewaterSCAN’s jumped nearly 30% from November 27 to December 4. Both dashboards report the highest disease levels in the Midwest, but with increases across regions. (Biobot Analytics, which I usually include in these updates, hasn’t reported new data for the last two weeks.)
When you see the CDC’s dashboard still reporting that wastewater viral activity for COVID-19 is “low” nationwide, it’s important to remember that the agency presents these data to appear less concerning than many outside public health experts would say they actually are. All data are also delayed by one to two weeks, meaning disease levels are likely much higher now than the most recent reports.
Test positivity and emergency department visits for COVID-19 are also increasing both nationally and across regions, according to the CDC. The agency’s forecasting center, which uses emergency department data, reports that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 28 states — including all of the East coast and much of the Midwest — as of December 10. Cases are only “declining or likely declining” in one state, Arizona, though this may be because disease levels are already high there (according to wastewater data).
The recombinant variant XEC is now causing more infections than any other in the U.S., at an estimated 44% of new cases between November 23 and December 7. While initially viewed with concern, this variant has grown more slowly than anticipated, likely contributing to the infection plateau in recent weeks. But even at a time where we’ve gotten somewhat lucky with less transmissible variants, our collective lack of COVID-19 precautions still inevitably leads to outbreaks. Meanwhile, some variant trackers are now watching a lineage called LP.8.1, which isn’t spreading much in the U.S. yet but may arrive in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, other pathogens continue to spread, too — including the bird flu H5N1. The CDC was unable to confirm one recent suspected bird flu case, a toddler in California who became sick after drinking raw milk. The case shows the challenges of testing and contact tracing when many pathogens are spreading with limited public health measures to contain them. CDC Director Mandy Cohen told STAT in a recent interview that the agency has “learned from our COVID-19 mistakes”; many health experts disagree.
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