Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 2.3 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending December 21. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has increased 1%, from 7.0% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending December 21 to 7.1% of tests during the week ending December 28.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 22% between the week ending December 21 and the week ending December 28, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 32% between December 18 and December 25, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 37% between the week ending December 21 and the week ending December 28, and this metric is near the peaks of recent years’ flu seasons.
As usual for this time of year, we’re in the midst of a winter COVID-19 surge. Infections are increasing across the U.S., driven by holiday travel and gatherings; as data are reported with delays, it will be weeks before we see the full impact of the holidays on severe disease and deaths — and even longer before we understand the impact on Long COVID. Other diseases, including the flu, RSV, and norovirus, are spreading widely right now, too.
All wastewater and healthcare system metrics show clear increases in COVID-19 spread during the last two weeks of December. The CDC estimates SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater increased by about 40%, while WastewaterSCAN reports a higher increase at 80%. Test positivity and emergency department visits for COVID-19, as reported by the CDC, also shot up during this period.
The Midwest and Northeast continue to report the highest viral levels and most dramatic increases in their wastewater — this is consistent across reports from the CDC, WWSCAN, and Biobot Analytics. But COVID-19 spread is increasing in the West and South, too. The CDC’s modeling center estimates that, as of December 31, COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 42 states.
This year’s winter COVID-19 surge started later and lower than usual. WWSCAN’s national estimate for viral levels in wastewater in late December 2024 is about half the estimates from late December 2023 and 2022. In those years, the winter surge peaked at the end of December. It may be different this year, with a peak later in January and high levels through February, but the trajectory and magnitude of infections are currently difficult to determine in our limited-and-delayed data landscape.
Even if COVID-19 cases are less prevalent this winter than prior years, though, the coronavirus is still leading to disease, death, and disability on a massive scale. The CDC reported about 41,000 COVID-19 deaths between October 2023 and March 2024 — and this is likely a significant undercount due to less testing and attention to the disease. Surveys suggest millions of people developed Long COVID during that time. This year’s surge will likely lead to similar outcomes.
In addition to COVID-19, there are several other viruses worth paying attention to right now. Norovirus is currently making headlines, as it’s spreading at record levels compared to recent years; this gastrointestinal virus causes awful nausea and vomiting, and it requires intense cleaning (hand sanitizer isn’t enough) to prevent transmission.
Flu and RSV continue to spread too, with influenza-like illness increasing rapidly across the U.S. Yesterday, the Louisiana state health department reported the U.S.’s first death from the bird flu H5N1. Public health statements and media coverage have been quick to emphasize that the person was “over 65” and had “underlying medical conditions,” which some health experts say minimizes the broad risks posed by this virus. Flu scientists say more deaths are likely if H5N1 continues to spread, Helen Branswell reported in STAT.
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