Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 3.8 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending January 4. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 6%, from 7.0% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending January 4 to 6.6% of tests during the week ending January 11.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 4% between the week ending January 4 and the week ending January 11, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 3% between January 1 and January 8, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 15% between the week ending January 4 and the week ending January 11.
All COVID-19 data sources indicate that cases are now decreasing in the U.S., suggesting we’re past the peak of this winter’s surge. This winter’s wave seems to be less intense than those in the last couple of years, but it’s still led to millions of cases and many thousands of hospitalizations and deaths. Other diseases — especially norovirus — continue to spread, too.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN both point to declines in SARS-CoV-2 levels nationally and for all regions, as of the second week of January. The Midwest continues to report the highest viral levels in wastewater, followed by the Northeast. Biobot Analytics, which I sometimes cite as a third wastewater data source, unfortunately announced recently that it is “pausing” its reports and will resume updates “as soon as possible.”
Note: the CDC’s reported decrease isn’t just a result of the agency updating its wastewater data baselines, which occurred last week. It is true that this process leads “viral activity levels” to appear less concerning than many scientists and health experts would say they truly are. But the CDC retroactively updates its whole dashboard during these adjustments, not just the most recent data. (Read my explainer from last summer and/or the CDC’s wastewater methods page for more details.) As always, I recommend finding local or state dashboards to track data in your community, if available.
Healthcare system data from the CDC also report declines in COVID-19 cases as of mid-January. National test positivity has declined for two weeks in a row, according to the PCR testing labs reporting to the agency. Plus, the CDC’s disease forecasting center, which uses emergency department visits for its estimates, predicts that infections are “declining or likely declining” in 45 states — and not growing in any states — as of January 14.
It’s good news that this winter’s surge has led to fewer cases than prior years (at least, as far as we can tell from the available data). But “fewer cases” is still many, many cases. The CDC has estimated that there were 4-8 million COVID-19 cases between October 2024 and early January 2025, leading to up to 210,000 hospitalizations and up to 25,000 deaths. The agency doesn’t include Long COVID in these estimates, but due to what we know about the disease, a significant fraction of those infected likely developed Long COVID or experienced new or worse chronic illnesses following COVID-19 this winter.
Imagine how many of these poor outcomes — and those from other diseases! — could have been prevented if collective public health measures were still in place to curb SARS-CoV-2’s spread. Speaking of other diseases: respiratory viruses like flu and RSV seem to be on the decline, too, though they are still circulating at high levels. Norovirus, that nasty gastrointestinal virus, continues to have a “banner season,” as Jon Cohen put it in a recent article for Science.
Leave a Reply