Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 2.9 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending January 18. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 7%, from 5.8% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending January 18 to 5.4% of tests during the week ending January 25.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 7% between the week ending January 18 and the week ending January 25, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 2% between January 15 and January 22, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 21% between the week ending January 18 and the week ending January 25.
Our season of intense virus spread continues in the U.S. For now, we are still able to track that spread as major CDC data sources are (or at least appear to be) back to their regular update schedule following interruptions from the Trump administration. Some COVID-19 and flu indicators have gone back up this week, suggesting that the current wave of illness may extend into the spring — particularly for parts of the country that reported lower disease spread so far this winter.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN indicate potential increases in national COVID-19 spread in late January. The CDC updated its national wastewater viral activity level from “moderate” back to “high”; and as long-time readers know, “high” from the CDC is actually very high if you ask public health experts who still prioritize COVID-19 safety.
Healthcare system metrics, including test positivity and emergency department visits from the CDC, report declines in COVID-19 spread over the same period. These metrics are often a week or two behind wastewater data in showing changing disease trends, though the mismatch in trends could also be because some regions are reporting increases while others are reporting decreases.
Speaking of different regions: according to the wastewater data, the Midwest continues to report the highest levels of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage, but states in the West and South are reporting greater increases. The CDC’s forecasting center similarly reports that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 20 states, including many across the West and South. As I noted in last week’s update, these are regions that didn’t see as much of a winter wave and may now be at risk for new outbreaks.
It’s too early to say for sure, but it appears we may be looking at a lower — but longer — winter COVID-19 wave than we experienced in the last couple of years. As evolutionary biologist T. Ryan Gregory often puts it, it’s important to remember that the size of a peak is ultimately less important than the “area under the curve” — or the long-term impacts of a lot of COVID-19 spread over sustained periods, including new and worsened chronic diseases.
Meanwhile, flu cases have also continued to go up this week, surprising epidemiologists. There is no evidence at this point that the resurgence of flu cases is due to the bird flu H5N1; wastewater detections of the strain are in line with the last few months of data, per WWSCAN, and the CDC’s variant surveillance hasn’t picked up new cases in recent weeks, either. (Reminder: the wastewater data represent waste from animals and contaminated milk, as well as any infected humans.) However, scientists are concerned about the potential for someone to be infected with both H5N1 and the seasonal flu during this higher-than-average flu season, leading to a new strain that could spread more easily among humans.
The CDC infectious disease data pages that I use to write these updates appear to be back updating on their normal schedules, as of February 3. But we will continue monitoring for further disruptions to federal COVID-19 and Long COVID information. Please reach out with tips and questions to betsy@thesicktimes.org or betsyladyzhets.25 on Signal.
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