Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 2.7 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending January 25. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 7%, from 5.3% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending January 25 to 4.9% of tests during the week ending February 1.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 8% between the week ending January 25 and the week ending February 1, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 4% between January 22 and January 29, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 11% between the week ending January 25 and the week ending February 1, and these visits are at record levels.
COVID-19 levels remain high in the U.S. as our longer-than-usual winter surge continues. While disease spread is decreasing in some regions, that decline is offset by increases and plateaus in other parts of the country. We’re also seeing a record-high seasonal flu season, as concerns about the bird flu H5N1 continue to grow.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics (back with a new report this week!) all indicate that COVID-19 is at a high plateau nationwide. This winter’s surge hasn’t been as intense as those in the last couple of years — but it has been longer than usual. As I wrote last week, the current wave of illness is now likely to continue into the spring.
By region: coronavirus levels in wastewater remain highest in the Midwest and Northeast, but are increasing more clearly in the West and South. The CDC reported a sudden increase in wastewater viral activity levels in the Northeast during the last week of January, but WWSCAN and Biobot both report decreases in this region; future data will offer more clarity.
Healthcare system metrics similarly show plateaus or slight declines at the national level, with increases in some states and decreases in others. The CDC forecasting center’s state-by-state epidemic trends map — which is based on emergency department data — is largely gray this week: infections are “not changing” in 31 states, the center reports, and are “growing or likely growing” in nine states (mostly in the West and South).
The seasonal flu also continues to spread at high levels. “This is a record flu season, one of the worst we have seen in more than a decade,” epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers wrote in her newsletter Outbreak Outlook yesterday. Doctors’ visits for flu-like symptoms (fever, cough, sore throat) are the highest they have been since 2002. Flu is also causing many more ED visits and hospitalizations than COVID-19, which is a reversal of prior winters.
Surveillance data from the CDC and WWSCAN suggest that this increase is due to the seasonal flu and not H5N1. For example: per the CDC, public health labs tested 3,458 flu A samples taken during the last week of January, and none were H5 (they were all seasonal strains). However, experts remain really concerned about the risk of seasonal and bird flu strains mixing, particularly as news comes out that 1) another bird flu strain has jumped to cows and 2) house cats can pass the virus from birds to people.
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