Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.2 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending April 26.
- COVID-19 test positivity declined moderately, from 3.3% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending April 26 to 2.9% during the week ending May 3.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 14% between the week ending April 26 and the week ending May 3, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 7% between April 23 and April 30, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
National COVID-19 metrics continue to report declines, as the U.S. remains in a moderate lull between winter and summer surges. There are signs of increased disease spread on the West Coast, indicating that this region may experience the start of a summer wave before others.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report declining SARS-CoV-2 levels as of early May. The CDC reported a decrease again in the most recent week of data, after reporting a very slight increase in the prior week. Nationally, average SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater are at similar levels to early November 2024, just before last winter’s surge started.
Healthcare system metrics similarly report declines, following the same trend from the last two months. About 0.36% of emergency department visits were attributed to COVID-19 in the week ending May 3, according to the CDC’s National Syndromic Surveillance Program. This metric has consistently gone down since early February, when about 1% of ED visits were attributed to COVID-19.
The CDC’s disease forecasting center, which also uses ED visit data for its modeled estimates, reported that COVID-19 cases were “declining or likely declining” in 29 states and “not changing” in 13 states, as of May 6. The center only estimated that cases were “likely growing” in Hawaii; as I noted last week, this state has been a hotspot recently.
However, Hawaii isn’t the only state reporting increased SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater to the CDC in late April and early May. Other states with recent increases include Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, and Washington. Biobot also reported that SARS-CoV-2 levels are “slightly increasing” in the West as of May 3.
Given that the West had fewer COVID-19 cases last winter than other parts of the country, I wouldn’t be surprised if this region were hit first by a summer surge. I’ll be watching to see if this trend continues in the coming weeks.
While COVID-19 levels have remained at more moderate levels this spring, the U.S. has faced a record pollen season, and common cold viruses (rhinoviruses and enteroviruses) are also on the upswing. While I’m generally skeptical of anyone who says their cough or sneeze is “just allergies,” I’m a bit less skeptical this time of year. Still, masks, testing, improved ventilation, and other health precautions can help reduce the spread of many airborne health threats, not just COVID-19.
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[…] but there are continued signs of increased disease spread on the West Coast, following a trend from last week. Test positivity data for federal health regions 8, 9, and 10 (which include West Coast states) […]