Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.0 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending May 3.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed the same, with 2.9% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during both the weeks ending May 3 and May 10.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 8% between the week ending May 3 and the week ending May 10, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 7% between April 30 and May 7, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
The U.S. remains in a moderate lull between COVID-19 surges, with national metrics reporting slow declines through mid-May. There are increases in disease spread in a few West Coast states, however, and new variants now arriving in the country are likely to spur outbreaks this summer. Also, Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine is finally approved — but not universally. Federal health officials are introducing new challenges for further shots.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report slight declines in average SARS-CoV-2 levels for early- to mid-May. These levels have declined slowly since February, and are close to reports from early November 2024 or late April 2024 — the last “baseline” points in between surges. Of course, SARS-CoV-2 levels at these points are still several times the true lows that we experienced in 2021 and 2022, when collective health measures were still in place.
Healthcare system data from the CDC’s surveillance networks similarly report slow declines through mid-May. COVID-19 test positivity, from the labs reporting to the agency, was about 2.9% in the weeks ending May 3 and May 10. Last year, the lowest point for this metric was 3.1%, during the weeks ending April 20, April 27, and May 11, 2024.
Most states and regions report COVID-19 declines, but there are continued signs of increased disease spread on the West Coast, following a trend from last week. Test positivity data for federal health regions 8, 9, and 10 (which include West Coast states) report increases in early May, as do wastewater data from the CDC and WWSCAN.
The CDC’s disease forecasting center also estimates that COVID-19 cases are “likely growing” in Nevada and Hawaii as of May 13. Cases are “declining or likely declining” in 30 states and “not changing” in 14, per the center. As I noted last week, it’s hard to say yet whether these are isolated hotspots or first signs of a summer surge, but it would make sense for the West to see a wave first given the last few months’ patterns.
In addition to travel and gatherings without collective precautions, new variants may aid a surge this summer. Variant trackers are now watching recombinant lineages called XFG and XFC, which have been detected in the U.S. but are not spreading widely yet. The CDC estimated that XFC caused 9% of cases in the two weeks ending May 10. Another variant, called NB.1.8.1, is contributing to high cases in Asia.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) finally approved Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine last weekend. But the vaccine was approved only for people over age 65 and those with health conditions that “put them at high risk for severe outcomes from COVID-19,” even though it’s previously been available more widely. Trump officials have also indicated further COVID-19 vaccine updates may be more restricted, threatening to take away another protective option for millions of people.
Update, May 20, 12 p.m. ET: FDA leaders have just announced that future COVID-19 vaccines will also be limited to those over age 65 and with health conditions that put them at “high risk for severe COVID-19,” until further clinical trials can be conducted. An article by Trump-appointed FDA officials in the New England Journal of Medicine explaining this new policy has no mention of Long COVID or of other measures Americans can use to protect themselves from COVID-19, such as high-quality masks.
