Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.9 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending May 31.
- COVID-19 test positivity increased slightly, from 2.8% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending May 31 to 3% during the week ending June 7.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 5% between the week ending May 31 and the week ending June 7, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 2% between May 28 and June 4, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
While there are signs of a summer COVID-19 wave on the horizon in the U.S., disease levels remain low to moderate across much of the country as of early June. I’m honestly surprised by the latest data — I expected more of a sharp increase by now. But the new variant NB.1.8.1, now spreading in the U.S. in significant numbers, is likely to drive such an increase in the coming weeks.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all indicate that average SARS-CoV-2 levels in the U.S. are in a moderate plateau. The CDC reported a slight decline in its national wastewater viral activity level for the week ending June 7; it also revised the prior week’s data, which had previously reported an increase, to now show a decline. Biobot and WWSCAN both report that national SARS-CoV-2 concentrations held steady over the first week of June.
The CDC’s wastewater data also indicate that, as of June 7, the national SARS-CoV-2 level was the lowest it has been since June 2023. I’m always somewhat skeptical of the CDC’s data given how the agency standardizes data from different sources (see my explainer from last year for more information about this). But WWSCAN and Biobot’s analysis do similarly suggest that disease levels have come down quite substantially from last winter’s wave — perhaps to the lowest levels possible without more widespread public health measures.
As I’ve noted for the last few weeks, the West Coast continues to report some COVID-19 increases, though the trends are uneven. Wastewater data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 levels are increasing in parts of California, especially the Bay Area (per WWSCAN), but might be staying steady or even decreasing elsewhere in the region. It’s difficult to say given limited testing in some areas: for example, Alaska reported a huge increase in the week ending May 31 followed by a huge decrease in the week ending June 7, but has only three testing sites across the state.
There are a few potential hotspots across the Midwest and South, too. Notably, public health officials in Cleveland, Ohio issued a COVID-19 warning last week after wastewater data showed a significant spike: SARS-CoV-2 levels went up “more than 250% compared to the previous month’s average,” according to local news site Cleveland.com.
Mirroring the wastewater data, the CDC’s disease forecasting center, which uses emergency department visits for its estimates, reports that COVID-19 cases are only “likely growing” in one state, California, as of June 9. Cases are “declining or likely declining” in 19 states and “not changing” in 23 states, per the center.
These lower disease levels won’t last long — or perhaps are already past us, but we don’t have the data yet — thanks to the variant NB.1.8.1, which has contributed to major outbreaks in Asia. The CDC’s latest variant estimates suggest that NB.1.8.1 caused about one-third of U.S. COVID-19 cases between May 25 and June 7, though the agency cautions that it’s not very confident in this estimate as relatively few viral sequences are reported these days compared to earlier in the pandemic.
Speaking of lacking confidence: a top CDC data official resigned in protest due to Trump health officials’ attacks on COVID-19 vaccines, CBS News reported yesterday. The official, Dr. Fiona Havers, led a surveillance network that collected hospitalization data for COVID-19, flu, and RSV. While COVID-19 data availability has actually not changed much under Trump — largely because the Biden administration already dismantled this infrastructure substantially from earlier in the pandemic — I continue to watch for other threats to the vital information we still have.
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[…] metrics in the U.S. continue to report consistent disease levels across much of the country — as I noted last week, I remain pleasantly surprised that we haven’t seen a sharper uptick yet this summer. Still, […]