Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.8 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending June 21.
- COVID-19 test positivity increased slightly, from 3% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending June 21 to 3.1% during the week ending June 28.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 3% between the week ending June 21 and the week ending June 28, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 3% between June 18 and June 25, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
The U.S.’s much-anticipated summer COVID-19 surge seems to be underway, but slowly and unevenly as the variant picture remains uncertain. As of late June, disease levels are increasing across the South and West Coast, but staying relatively low on the East Coast and Midwest. But our most recent available data are from before July 4, a holiday that typically accelerates outbreaks.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN indicate that the national average for SARS-CoV-2 levels in sewage has remained pretty consistent throughout June. (There was no report from Biobot Analytics this week.) Recent national averages for wastewater, as well as test positivity and emergency department visits, are significantly lower than late June of last year, though they are close to this time in 2023.
But at the regional level, it’s a more concerning picture. SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater are going up at testing sites across the South and West Coast. WWSCAN and the CDC report recent increases at sites in Florida, Texas, California, Alaska, Georgia, and Louisiana, among others. California’s statewide trend, as reported by the state’s health department, is clearly increasing again after appearing to level off in last week’s data.
Test positivity rates and emergency department visits are also increasing in these regions. The CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center, which uses ED visits for its modeling, estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 18 states as of July 1, almost all of them across the West and South. The center estimates that cases are “declining or likely declining” in only three states.
As I noted last week, some epidemiologists and virologists have suggested that COVID-19 increases have been slow here because the U.S. is not yet seeing concerning new variants (NB.1.8.1, XFG) in big numbers, or perhaps because this season’s concerning variants may be less successful here in reinfecting people than in other countries. This is tough to follow as we have very limited data: the CDC has not updated its variant estimates since mid-June because testing labs aren’t getting enough SARS-CoV-2 samples to sequence.
But even without comprehensive data, we know enough to expect that variants, summer travel, and gatherings without public health measures will all contribute to outbreaks in the coming weeks. And an important reminder: the latest data, covered in this week’s update, are all from before the July 4 holiday. They’re also from before the tragic floods in Texas, a climate disaster that has surely contributed to new COVID-19 spread, too.
