Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.8 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending July 5.
- COVID-19 test positivity increased significantly, from 3.7% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending July 5 to 4.8% during the week ending July 12.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 22% between the week ending July 5 and the week ending July 12, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 12% between July 2 and July 9, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
A summer COVID-19 wave continues to pick up in the U.S., with national metrics now showing definite increases in mid-July. Cases are still increasing most aggressively in the South and West Coast, but there are signs that the wave is also starting to reach other regions.
After showing steady levels for much of May and June, the CDC and WastewaterSCAN report notable increases in their national averages for SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater following the July 4 holiday. Healthcare system data are picking up the trend, too: test positivity, from a network of labs reporting to the CDC, went up 50% between the weeks ending June 28 and July 12 (from 3.2% to 4.8%). Walgreens’ testing dashboard also continues to report increases.
The South and West continue to drive this wave, as shown by all data sources, including Biobot Analytics, which did post a report last week after some time off. Wastewater data show significant increases at testing sites in Florida, Texas, South Carolina, California, Hawaii, and Idaho. (One Idaho site is reporting incredibly high levels; I am trying to find out why this is and will report back in a future update.)
As always, remember that these are all states with more robust wastewater testing infrastructure; similar outbreaks are likely also happening in places with less testing.
The CDC’s disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 27 states as of July 15. That includes states across the East Coast — notably some in the Northeast in addition to those in the South — along with California, Alaska, and Hawaii. Also notable: New York State, which is often a bellwether for new waves, has had delays at many of its sewage testing sites in recent weeks, meaning we could be missing potential new outbreaks in the Northeast in wastewater data.
Local news outlets have started to spread the word about this summer’s wave (weeks later than us at The Sick Times). “COVID-19 levels in Bay Area wastewater have now exceeded the winter peak” in WWSCAN’s data, wrote journalists at KQED, the Bay Area’s NPR station, on July 16.
In addition to COVID-19, ticks pose another health risk this summer. Emergency room visits for tick bites were higher this July than in July of any of the prior eight years, according to Your Local Epidemiologist. Ticks, as well as other pests like mosquitoes, are sticking around longer and expanding their ranges as climate change causes warmer weather.
