Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.9 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending July 19.
- COVID-19 test positivity increased significantly, from 4.9% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending July 19 to 6.5% during the week ending July 26.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 35% between the week ending July 19 and the week ending July 26, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 9% between July 15 and July 22, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
After a slow start, the U.S.’s summer COVID-19 wave is now clearly taking off, with cases increasing nationwide according to all metrics. While the South and West Coast continue to report the highest disease levels, increases are happening across the country.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics report SARS-CoV-2 levels going up in all regions. The CDC reported a jump of 35% in its national wastewater viral activity level between July 19 and July 26, the biggest change in this metric since last winter (though note, these are preliminary data).
Healthcare system metrics also report increases across the country. I was particularly struck by changes in test positivity rates between July 19 and July 26, from the network of laboratories still reporting PCR testing data to the CDC: not only did the national rate go up from 4.9% to 6.5%, rates went up in almost every health region, and some of those had pretty significant changes.
In region 6 — which includes Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas — the test positivity rate went up from 4.5% to 10.5%. These are preliminary data, but it’s still a concerning spike considering that testing data tend to fluctuate less than wastewater levels. Wastewater levels are similarly “very high” in Texas and “high” in Louisiana, according to the CDC.
Showing a similar national trend, the CDC’s disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 40 states as of July 29. Cases are not declining in any states, per the center. And it’s important to remember that, since the most recent available data are from late July, disease levels are likely higher now.
Some commentators continue to note that this summer’s COVID-19 levels are lower than last year’s. But it’s difficult to predict what will happen over the next few weeks, especially as surveillance for variants continues to be minimal. Federal funding cuts have hurt some researchers studying SARS-CoV-2’s continued evolution, according to a recent news article in JAMA. And any COVID-19 wave still leads to millions of infections, thousands of deaths, and new cases and worsened cases of Long COVID and other chronic diseases.
Meanwhile, a majority of American adults plan not to get updated COVID-19 vaccines this fall, according to new polling data from the Kaiser Family Foundation. New vaccine restrictions from the Trump administration are already causing confusion and will make the vaccines harder to access for those who still seek them out.
