National COVID-19 trends data remain largely unavailable this week from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Out of the four metrics usually included in these updates, only one was updated in the last week:
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 22% between October 1 and October 8, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
The U.S. is still largely without COVID-19 and other infectious disease data as the government shutdown continues. As Congress has repeatedly failed to pass a resolution that would fund federal agencies, the shutdown — and data delays — are likely to go into a fourth week, if not longer. This could be incredibly harmful as the U.S. heads into colder weather and the disease outbreaks that typically follow.
Limited COVID-19 data that we do have suggest that disease levels are still on the decline, as of mid-October. WastewaterSCAN reports declining SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater across all regions. In fact, WWSCAN’s national average is the lowest it’s been all year; though I take that with a grain of salt given it is our only national-level data source right now. (Biobot Analytics has not provided an update since late September.)
State and local public health agencies also report declining COVID-19 levels. For example, California’s state average SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater are the lowest they’ve been in several months. Emergency department visits for COVID-19 have steadily declined in New York City and in Texas, as well as in other states that report these data.
Caitlin Rivers and her colleagues at the newsletter Outbreak Outlook once again compiled updates from state health agencies this week. They did not find any COVID-19 increases. I also checked all state sites that report SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater, and similarly found decreases or plateaus and lower levels across the majority of available testing site and statewide trend data. Notably, the Vermont city of Essex Junction, which reported an increase last week, is now trending back down.
However, Rivers noted several states where flu and/or RSV levels are starting to increase as the typical season for these viruses kicks off: Florida, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Texas, Virginia. Rivers also pointed out that flu has hit Japan particularly hard in recent weeks, unusual for this time of year. And Australia had a bad flu season this year (over their winter), which could be a bad sign for flu in the northern hemisphere. Meanwhile, COVID-19 continues to spread widely in the U.K.
With data delays, layoffs, vaccine restrictions, threats to Medicaid, and more, the Trump administration has made the U.S. woefully unprepared to face the infectious disease outbreaks that typically follow colder weather and indoor gatherings. Some Democratic governors are forming an alliance to share health information, but even in those states, it can’t replace the CDC’s vast surveillance infrastructure. More than perhaps ever before in the ongoing pandemic, Americans who still care about protecting themselves and their communities from COVID-19 are on their own.
