National COVID-19 trends data remain largely unavailable this week from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Out of the four metrics usually included in these updates, only one was updated in the last week:
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 28% between October 15 and October 22, and the national wastewater trend is “low,” per WastewaterSCAN.
COVID-19 levels seem to be lower than usual for this time of year across much of the U.S. But that’s based on limited, inconsistent data, as we are now more than a month into a CDC data blackout caused by the government shutdown. That lack of data makes it harder to identify COVID-19 hotspots as we head into the holiday season, as well as other infectious diseases — RSV, in particular, is starting to spread in some places.
National averages of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater from both WastewaterSCAN and Biobot Analytics suggest that we are at a lower plateau between waves, as of late October. WWSCAN’s latest national average is the lowest it’s been since 2022, significantly below the levels reported in spring 2025 as well as early November 2024. While this is just one data source, it’s good to see our baseline between waves actually get lower for once. Yale’s PopHIVE dashboard also reports declines in COVID-related medical claims as of October 25.
Data from state health departments similarly shows low COVID-19 levels across much of the country. For example, Caitlin Rivers flagged in this week’s Oubreak Outlook newsletter — which continues to be a vital source for state-by-state updates — that COVID-19, flu, and RSV together only made up 0.5% of emergency department visits in New Jersey for the week ending October 25. In both Hawaii and West Virginia, COVID-19 indicators are trending down in the latest week of data after slight increases last week.
For this week’s update, I once again checked through all state-level COVID-19 wastewater dashboards, and found disease levels are low or moderate for the majority of sites with available data. Average SARS-CoV-2 levels are very low in California’s wastewater; the most recent data point (as of October 23) is below the lowest levels from last spring and fall 2024. There are also consistent declines and lower levels at wastewater testing sites in Chicago and New York City.
However, I also noted a few signs of potential COVID-19 increases, particularly in Northeast states. Delaware and Rhode Island both reported slight increases in their average SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater as of October 25. Testing sites in Hanover, New Hampshire and Burlington, Vermont also reported increases. And emergency department visits for COVID-19 went up slightly in Maine. Indiana also recently reported a major increase in SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, but those are preliminary data and the state has not updated its dashboard since October 21.
In her newsletter, Rivers highlighted RSV spread, writing: “RSV is making the most definitive moves of the three respiratory viruses, with clear increases in children across multiple regions.” That includes increases in state-reported data from Florida, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, and Texas. While COVID-19 does far more multi-organ-system damage than other viruses that spread this time of year, RSV as well as flu and other respiratory infections offer more reasons to keep masking, improving ventilation, and taking other precautions.
And we will have less information on how all of these viruses are spreading, as the continued government shutdown creeps closer to the holiday season — when travel and indoor gatherings always coincide with more disease spread. We also have very limited information on how many people are getting vaccinated, under the Trump administration’s increased restrictions: the CDC has not yet shared any vaccination data for this fall.
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[…] and Biobot Analytics both report low national averages of SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater: as I noted last week, WWSCAN’s national average for late October is the lowest it’s been since early 2022. But both […]