Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.1 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending December 20.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed about the same, with 3.8% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending December 20 and 3.9% positive during the week ending December 27.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 13% between December 20 and December 27, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “moderate,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 20% between December 17 and December 24, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness increased 37% between the week ending December 20 and the week ending December 27, and this metric is at a record high compared to prior flu seasons.
COVID-19 levels are increasing across most of the U.S. as of late December. But the flu is overshadowing COVID-19 in healthcare system impacts and headlines: flu is having a record season, driven by a variant called H3N2. The holiday season always leads to delays in data reporting, so keep in mind that COVID-19 levels (and those of other diseases) may be much higher in your region than the latest numbers suggest.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report significant increases in SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater throughout December. The Midwest and Northeast report much higher levels than the West and South, but all regions are seeing increases. Notably, the CDC’s wastewater data have continued the fluctuating pattern that I flagged in December: alternating between stark increases and smaller ones. I suspect this is due to reporting delays.
Healthcare system data also report increases in COVID-19 spread across much of the U.S. Test positivity and emergency department visits have not yet gone up as dramatically as wastewater levels, but this will likely change in the coming weeks. The CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are definitively “growing” in 34 states as of December 30, and only “declining or likely declining” in one state, California.
While both flu and COVID-19 have increased in prevalence over the last month, flu is doing more damage to the healthcare system as of late December. National flu test positivity was 33% for the week ending December 27 compared to COVID-19’s 4%, and flu caused 8.3% of emergency department visits compared to 0.8% for COVID-19. Among clinics reporting to a CDC flu surveillance network, 8.2% of patient visits that week were for “influenza-like illness,” (fever plus cough or sore throat) — a record high compared to the prior five winters.
You might ask: are some of these flu cases really COVID-19 cases? Testing and emergency department data from the CDC are hard to dispute, since healthcare facilities often test for both viruses at the same time when someone presents with respiratory symptoms. But many people, particularly those with milder symptoms, do not test to see which virus is making them sick, thanks to the broad dismantling of a public testing infrastructure that we had earlier in the pandemic. Also, WWSCAN’s data suggest that levels of the two viruses in sewage may be pretty close in some places.
SARS-CoV-2 carries a higher risk of long-term symptoms than other pathogens, but flu has also caused myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME) in the past; both viruses are good reasons to stay on guard. And for both viruses, as well as other pathogens going around this time of year, similar precautions (like high-quality masks and improving air quality) work to reduce your risk of infection. It’s also not too late to get a flu shot — it will help reduce the risk of severe symptoms, even though this year’s vaccine is not the best match to the widely circulating variant.
One response
[…] National COVID-19 Trends as of January 6 – link […]