Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.4 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending February 21. (The CDC has not yet updated this metric for the week ending February 28.)
- COVID-19 test positivity decreased moderately, from 4.4% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending February 21 to 3.8% positive during the week ending February 28.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 8% between February 21 and February 14, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 13% between February 18 and February 25 and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness decreased 13% between the week ending February 21 and the week ending February 14, and this metric is now at a moderate level.
After several weeks of little change in national COVID-19 levels, metrics are now trending down more definitively. This winter’s COVID-19 wave may have peaked at a lower point than we’ve seen in prior years, but it’s been a long one. And months of moderate-to-high viral spread add up in causing severe disease and new Long COVID cases.
Both the CDC and WastewaterSCAN have updated their assessments of national SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater this week: the CDC moved from “moderate” to “low,” and WWSCAN moved from “high” to “medium.” While the CDC’s wastewater categories continue to downplay actual COVID-19 spread, it’s still notable to see both data providers change their assessments after many weeks in the prior categories. (Biobot Analytics has not yet posted a report for this week.)
The CDC and WWSCAN also report declining SARS-CoV-2 levels nationally and across most regions. Levels remain highest in the Midwest — as has been the case throughout this winter — but they are clearly declining as of late February, according to both national wastewater dashboards as well as some state ones (Minnesota, Indiana, Wisconsin).
The West and South, which have reported lower SARS-CoV-2 levels this winter than the Midwest and Northeast, could still see more outbreaks in the spring. The CDC reports a slight increase in its regional average for SARS-CoV-2 levels in the West’s wastewater, while WWSCAN reports a plateau (rather than a decline) in the South. Notably, California’s wastewater dashboard has reported “very low” levels of SARS-CoV-2 in the state’s sewer systems throughout the winter.
Healthcare system data report similar patterns. The CDC’s COVID-19 test positivity data report declines or plateaus in all regions, with the clearest declines in the Midwest and Northeast. And the agency’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that cases are “growing or likely growing” in only two states: Virginia and Arkansas. Cases are “declining or likely declining” in 35 states, per the center.
Flu levels are also declining again after a few weeks of plateaus. The share of healthcare visits for flu-like illness, as reported to a CDC surveillance network, was under 4% this week for the first time since December. When this metric drops below 3%, it will mark the conclusion of flu season. RSV levels continue to rise, however, offering another reason to remain cautious — especially if you have young children.
As the CDC no longer attempts to track every COVID-19 case, researchers at the agency model the disease’s total burden on the healthcare system (adapted from a similar analysis for the flu). Between October 1, 2025, and February 28, 2026, they estimate that COVID-19 has led to 99,000–180,000 hospitalizations and 11,000–32,000 deaths. It’s likely that these estimates are undercounts, as they are based on hospitalization data and hospitals no longer consistently test all patients for COVID-19 as they did earlier in the pandemic. These estimates also fail to include new or worsened cases of Long COVID and other chronic diseases.
