Betsy Ladyzhets

Most Covid-19 data sources point to a continued slow increase in the coronavirus’ spread across the country. Due to reporting delays, our most recent numbers are from the week before Thanksgiving; I expect that next week’s data will show a sharper uptick driven by holiday travel and gatherings with few widespread safety measures.

All major Covid-19 metrics currently point to slow-but-steady increases in coronavirus transmission at the national level. Travel and gatherings for Thanksgiving are likely to accelerate the virus’ spread, contributing to a potential winter surge.

Over the last three years, Covid-19 has followed a similar pattern during the fall and winter months in the U.S.: after an increase in cases over the summer, disease spread has waned in the early fall — then returned with a new surge around Thanksgiving. While the holiday surge was supercharged in 2021 thanks to…