Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 3.3 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending January 11. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 5%, from 6.5% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending January 11 to 6.2% of tests during the week ending January 18.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 19% between the week ending January 11 and the week ending January 18, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “moderate,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 16% between January 8 and January 15, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 6% between the week ending January 11 and the week ending January 18.
The U.S. remains in a period of high disease spread, for COVID-19 as well as seasonal pathogens like the flu and norovirus. COVID-19 levels are declining, but our less-intense-than-usual winter surge may give way to more cases this spring. And the public health landscape is full of uncertainty right now as a new Trump administration takes over federal agencies.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN both indicate declining COVID-19 cases nationally. Healthcare system metrics show a similar pattern: current hospitalizations for COVID-19, emergency department visits, and test positivity all declined from January 4 through January 18. (As always, it’s worth noting that these data are preliminary.)
By region, the trends are less consistent. The Midwest and Northeast continue to report the highest SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater, but levels have declined throughout January. In the South and West, however, viral levels are increasing in some states (Texas, Florida, North Carolina, California) after staying low through the winter so far.
The CDC’s disease forecasting center also reports that COVID-19 infections are “growing or likely growing” in nine states as of January 21: Florida, North Carolina, California, Arizona, Texas, Kentucky, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, New York. Communities that have seen lower COVID-19 spread in the last couple of months may be at risk for new outbreaks in the coming weeks as people continue to gather indoors.
Meanwhile, disease indicators for the flu went back up this week after a decline earlier in January. “This kind of rebound is unusual (but not unheard of) for this point in the season,” wrote epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers in her newsletter Outbreak Outlook. Notably, flu cases have led to a higher share of emergency department visits than COVID-19 cases so far this winter; however, we know from research that COVID-19 is more likely to lead to chronic disease. Norovirus levels also remain very high.
For a couple of days last week, I was really worried we wouldn’t have enough public data available for me to write today’s update. As I wrote on Friday, the CDC has not updated some COVID-19 and other disease data pages in the wake of a “pause” to federal health communications issued by Trump officials. This is a chaotic time for everyone working in public health. I and the rest of The Sick Times’ team will do our best to keep track of all the COVID-related news during this time; if you have any questions you’d like us to answer or information to share, please reach out.
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