Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 2.8 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending February 1. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed the same, with 4.8% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during both the weeks ending February 1 and February 8.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 1% between the week ending February 1 and the week ending February 8, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 1% between January 29 and February 5, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 1% between the week ending February 1 and the week ending February 8, and these visits are at record levels.
COVID-19 levels remain elevated across the U.S., as our long winter surge continues. Wastewater and healthcare data indicate high and steady COVID-19 cases through early February, as well as an ongoing record-high seasonal flu season and threats of the bird flu H5N1.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN show a high plateau of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage over the last month. The CDC’s national wastewater viral activity level (i.e., the national average of all testing sites reporting to the agency) has changed by just 2% between January 18 and February 8. WWSCAN’s national average has changed by just 10% between January 15 and February 5.
Healthcare system data show a similar picture. Test positivity and emergency department visits for COVID-19 have both leveled off in recent weeks after decreasing in early January. And the CDC’s forecasting center reports that COVID-19 cases are “not changing” in 30 states for the week ending February 11, a similar forecast to last week’s. The center also reports cases are “declining or likely declining” in 16 states, though, which may be a good sign.
Regional trends are inconsistent and difficult to interpret across data sources this week, likely due to differences in the testing sites represented by different sources and the timing for updates. This is a great time to find and follow your local public health department and/or local wastewater surveillance dashboards, if you aren’t already, as federal communications continue to face threats from the Trump administration.
Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to face a record-high flu season: all flu indicators remained high or went further up this week. Nearly 8% of healthcare visits in the CDC’s respiratory surveillance network during the first week of February were for flu-like illness, the highest value reported in two decades.
While surveillance data suggests seasonal flu is causing the vast majority of flu cases, a report from the CDC (finally released last week after delays) makes it clear that our public health system should be looking harder for H5N1 cases passed from animals. The agency tested 150 veterinarians who work with dairy cattle, and found three of them had evidence of a recent H5 infection. Public health agencies also reported new cases in humans last week, among people who worked with animals in three different states (Nevada, Ohio, Wyoming).
While mainstream media focuses on the record flu season, it’s important to remember that both flu and COVID-19 are dangerous diseases — both can cause severe illness and long-term symptoms and sequelae. And both can be prevented through high-quality masks, testing, cleaning the air, contact tracing, and other public health measures. Instead of ramping up any of this, the Trump administration fired thousands of workers at federal health agencies, including the CDC’s “disease detectives.”
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