National COVID-19 trends data are largely unavailable this week from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Out of the four metrics usually included in these updates, only one was updated in the last week:
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 28% between September 24 and October 1, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
COVID-19 and other infectious disease data continue to be very limited while the U.S. government is shut down. Last week, the CDC updated a couple of national COVID-19 metrics; this week, the agency didn’t even update that national trends page. And even when Congress reaches a budget deal, infectious disease surveillance will remain under threat due to recent CDC layoffs.
The COVID-19 data that we do have, from independent wastewater surveillance and state public health departments, indicate that disease levels continue to decline across most of the U.S. Epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers and her colleagues at the newsletter Outbreak Outlook once again compiled a detailed summary of state trends this past weekend — check there and my list of wastewater dashboards to find data sources for where you live.
WastewaterSCAN reports that national average SARS-CoV-2 levels have decreased through early October: the latest average level is less than a third of the summer surge’s peak in early September, and is close to the moderate levels reported between waves this past spring. Healthcare claims data, as reported in the Yale PopHIVE dashboard, similarly show declining COVID-19 spread in recent weeks. (Biobot Analytics has not yet posted a report for this week.)
WWSCAN and state health department data also suggest that COVID-19 levels continue to decline across regions, as of early October, particularly in places that were hardest hit by this summer’s surge. SARS-CoV-2 levels in California’s wastewater are “low”; emergency department visits for COVID-19 have steadily declined in Texas in the last month; and both COVID-19 ED visits and test positivity in Hawaii have declined to their lowest levels in six months.
I continue to closely watch Northeast states, which are often the first to see a fall/winter surge, for any increases. In her newsletter, Rivers flagged that ED visits for COVID-19 have remained stable (rather than declining) in Connecticut, and that SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater are increasing in the Vermont city of Essex Junction. Viral levels are also at a plateau in one of Boston’s sewersheds. And wastewater data remain very limited in New York State due to a laboratory transition there.
Some European countries are starting to see their fall/winter COVID-19 waves now, as Dr. Ruth Ann Crystal described in her COVID-19 & Health News newsletter. For example, pharmacies in France are facing a shortage of rapid tests due to high demand, and the U.K.’s health statistics agency reports sharp increases in both COVID-19 and flu. In addition, Rivers noted a few signs that flu and RSV are starting to spread in parts of the U.S., as we head into this year’s respiratory disease season.
The U.S. will be less prepared to face both COVID-19 and other disease outbreaks this winter due to widespread layoffs at the CDC. It’s currently unclear exactly which divisions and how many workers are included: multiple outlets reported that the Trump administration may have reversed some layoffs, with officials claiming some staff mistakenly received reduction-in-force notices and were not actually part of the cuts. But regardless, these job losses will decimate the agency’s workforce. “It’s a massacre,” one laid-off CDC official told STAT.
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[…] been laid off during the shutdown, while thousands more are furloughed. The CDC has not updated surveillance data on COVID-19 or other infectious diseases. And the NIH’s RECOVER-Treating Long COVID initiative postponed a […]
[…] U.S. is still largely without COVID-19 and other infectious disease data as the government shutdown continues. As Congress has repeatedly failed to pass a resolution that would fund federal agencies, the […]