Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.2 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending June 6.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed consistent, with 0.76% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending May 30 and 0.75% positive during the week ending June 6.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 1% between May 30 and June 6, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater stayed consistent between May 27 and June 3 and the national wastewater trend is “low,” per WastewaterSCAN.
The U.S.’s low lull in COVID-19 spread continues. Disease levels in wastewater and healthcare data remain very low through early June. While there are possible increases in some places, particularly in the Midwest and South, it’s unclear if a summer wave — which we’ve seen every year since the pandemic began — is starting soon. Meanwhile, World Cup matches in several major cities may pose new disease threats.
Wastewater surveillance data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN report continued very low average levels of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage, both nationally and across most regions. WWSCAN returned to a “low” category for SARS-CoV-2 this week after going up to “medium” last week, as the organization’s national average has plateaued in early June following a very small increase in the last week of May.
WWSCAN continues to report higher SARS-CoV-2 levels in the Midwest than other regions, but this regional average seems driven mostly by a handful of testing sites in Ohio and Nebraska. Similarly, the CDC reports a “moderate” wastewater viral activity level in Mississippi and a “low” level in Louisiana (as opposed to “very low”), but this is based on data from only two testing sites in each state.
The recent low levels have been a pleasant surprise for some long-time data trackers. Yesterday, while I was talking to virologist and wastewater surveillance expert Marc Johnson for an upcoming story, he noted that, in last week’s sewage samples from about 40 sites across Missouri, only one site had enough SARS-CoV-2 present that he and his colleagues could identify a viral sequence. “That’s never happened before, ever,” he said, adding that many Missouri sites have recently been negative for SARS-CoV-2 across multiple weeks.
Healthcare system data report similar lows. National test positivity from the CDC’s PCR testing network remains under 1%, and this metric is very low and stable in most regions. There are potential increases in the Southwest (region 9) and central South (region 6), though these are preliminary. And the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “likely growing” in Texas and Florida, while they are “declining or likely declining” in 38 states as of June 9.
It’s possible that these increases in parts of the South and Midwest could be the start of a summer wave. The South, in particular, often sees higher COVID-19 cases in the summer due to more people gathering indoors during hot weather. But these data are tentative and must be interpreted cautiously — I also thought cases might be picking up in the South three weeks ago, and was wrong then as some numbers were revised down the next week.
Another potential contributor to COVID-19 spread this summer is the World Cup, which has kicked off in 16 cities across North America. The tournament is expected to bring in five million fans from around the world, according to Scientific American, which covered how scientists are collaborating to track COVID-19 and other pathogens in host cities.
