Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.2 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending June 13.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed consistent, with 0.82% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending June 6 and 0.84% positive during the week ending June 13.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 19% between June 6 and June 13, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 5% between June 3 and June 10, and the national wastewater trend is “low,” per WastewaterSCAN.
COVID-19 levels remain very low across much of the U.S. as a deep lull between waves continues — at least, as far as we can tell from viral levels in wastewater, which do not translate directly to infections. However, there are accumulating signals that a summer wave may start soon, particularly in parts of the South.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report very low levels of SARS-CoV-2 in their national and regional averages. Biobot reports an increase in its national average, though, as well as in its regional averages for the South and Northeast, which Risk Report author Marisa Donnelly notes “could be the first signs of the start of a summer wave.” WWSCAN also reports increases and recent higher levels at some sites in the South (particularly in Mississippi and Florida) and Midwest.
The CDC reports a significant decrease in its national wastewater viral activity level and a significant increase in its average for the Northeast. However, I take both changes with a big grain of salt, as changes in the CDC’s averages are often driven by just a few testing sites when there are delays in states reporting to the national network. In particular, the Northeast average seems skewed by one testing site in New York State with very high levels; on the state’s dashboard, which is updated more frequently, almost all testing sites in the state are reporting low levels of SARS-CoV-2.
Healthcare system data from the CDC also suggest potential COVID-19 outbreaks in the South. The agency’s laboratory testing network reports multiple weeks of increasing COVID-19 test positivity in health region 6, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Louisiana, and Arkansas. It also reports more preliminary increases (just one week of data) in regions 5 and 7, in the Midwest, and region 1, in New England.
In addition, the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing” in Florida and “likely growing” in Nevada as of June 16, while they are “declining or likely declining” in 36 other states and “not changing” in 11 states.
The South is starting to look more like an early setting for a summer COVID-19 wave, but data are still preliminary. And it’s worth emphasizing that this summer’s expected wave will start from a lower trough than what we have seen in the last couple of years, so it’s difficult to predict the potential magnitude or timing. SARS-CoV-2 variant evolution has been relatively quiet lately (after BA.3.2 has turned out to have limited impact in the U.S. so far), but researchers are always flagging new lineages that may change that picture.
I’m still working on a story about funding challenges for the CDC’s National Wastewater Surveillance System. Please send me comments and questions — I’m particularly interested in hearing from people with Long COVID and related diseases who rely on wastewater data in some way.
