national COVID-19 trends

The COVID-19 picture in the U.S. hasn’t changed much over the last month: national disease levels are declining, but very slowly, as some parts of the country (particularly in the Midwest and South) remain disease hotspots even as we head into the spring.

The U.S.’s long winter of airborne virus spread continues. COVID-19 is still spreading at higher levels in some parts of the country, particularly in the Midwest, and may be increasing further in other regions. Flu remains at high levels, too, as the influenza B strain continues to rise.

Both COVID-19 and the seasonal flu have been spreading at higher levels in the U.S. for months now, and that trend is likely to continue with both pathogens for several more weeks. While national COVID-19 metrics are stable or slowly declining, the disease is increasing in concentration in some parts of the country as it…

COVID-19 levels are going up in parts of the South, West, and possibly the Midwest, while continuing to decline elsewhere. Trends suggest we may be in for a second round of this winter’s COVID-19 wave after the initial peak in early January. Flu levels increased this week, too, likely due to more influenza B spread.

The COVID-19 trends surprised me this week: several major national metrics are trending down, despite not yet reaching high levels comparable to what we typically see at the peaks of surges. This could be good news, but tread with caution; these data are preliminary, and SARS-CoV-2 is an unpredictable virus.

Our record-high flu season may have peaked in the U.S. as of early January, but levels of that disease remain very high while COVID-19 rates continue to increase across most of the country. This winter is shaping up to be a long one for airborne virus spread.

COVID-19 levels are increasing across most of the U.S. as of late December. But the flu is overshadowing COVID-19 in healthcare system impacts and headlines: flu is having a record season, driven by a variant called H3N2.