national COVID-19 trends

Both Covid-19 and respiratory virus season metrics point to ongoing increases in disease spread across the country, though some regions (particularly the Midwest) are seeing more SARS-CoV-2 infections than others right now. The federal government continues to take insufficient responses to Covid-19 and other common diseases.

As I anticipated last week, major metrics for Covid-19 and other respiratory viruses show increased disease spread during the week of Thanksgiving. This trend will likely continue through December (if not longer) as Americans continue to travel and gather for the holidays with relatively few precautions.

Most Covid-19 data sources point to a continued slow increase in the coronavirus’ spread across the country. Due to reporting delays, our most recent numbers are from the week before Thanksgiving; I expect that next week’s data will show a sharper uptick driven by holiday travel and gatherings with few widespread safety measures.

All major Covid-19 metrics currently point to slow-but-steady increases in coronavirus transmission at the national level. Travel and gatherings for Thanksgiving are likely to accelerate the virus’ spread, contributing to a potential winter surge.

Over the last three years, Covid-19 has followed a similar pattern during the fall and winter months in the U.S.: after an increase in cases over the summer, disease spread has waned in the early fall — then returned with a new surge around Thanksgiving. While the holiday surge was supercharged in 2021 thanks to…